Same-Sex Marriage has been a hotly debated issue for around 10 years in America. While 1996 saw the passage of the infamous Defense of Marriage Act, the debate on gay marriage really gained ground in 2003 when Massachusetts legalized same-sex marriage through its Supreme Court. The fight and struggles for same-sex marriage have been chronicled already — including several postings on this website devoted to the subject. Since 2003 support for same-sex marriage has increased gradually, now finding support around 53% nationwide. A poll just released today showed support for same-sex marriage among Catholic voters at 54%. Since Barack Obama announced his support of same-sex marriage last summer, support for issue has dramatically risen among Democrats and especially African-Americans. The African-American community was initially opposed to same-sex marriage on religious and cultural grounds. However, Obama’s support caused a skyrocketing in polls for gay marriage among the President’s followers.
Leon County, FL and Same-Sex Marriage
I have done a good deal of analysis on Leon County in older blog posts so I will not be going into to much demographic detail here. Overall, Leon County, FL is home to Tallahassee, the state capital. It is boasts conservative northern suburbs, a vibrant Democratic-leaning midtown, three college campuses, and a 30% African-American population. The county is a reliably Democratic base of support in Florida and generally stands on the liberal side of many issues. However, when Florida went to the polls in 2008 to vote on a potential same-sex marriage ban the initiative passed with 62% in the state and garnered the support of Leon County.
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Only Monroe County rejected the ban. Liberal Alachua, Leon, and Broward Counties all voted in favor. In Leon and Broward the reasons came down to African-American’s (and Hispanics as well in Broward) supporting the ban. The same groups that supported President Obama and democratic candidates voted in favor of the same-sex marriage ban for a variety of religious and cultural reasons.
The map below shows the precinct vote in Leon.
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The precincts that rejected the ban where largely concentrated in the FSU campus area and its surrounding residential zones as well as the midtown precincts from Indian-Head Acres all the way up Thomasville Road to Betton and Waverly Hills. Heavily African-American precincts supported the ban, as did conservative Republican suburbs in the north.
Below is a map of Leon County by race. Comparing the two maps shows how African-American precincts supported the ban at the time.
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Shifting Opinions
Since 2008 there has been a growing support for same-sex marriage across the county and Florida is no exception. The President’s support for the measure has increased Democratic and African-American support while doing nothing to decline the tepid but slowly growing support among Republicans. I decided to use polling data, combined with the 2008 vote in Leon County to see just how much support has increased and to show what a vote on same-sex marriage might look like if a vote happened today in Leon County.
First, I went through the old polls from Public Policy Polling, a reliable firm that proved startlingly accurate in the last several election cycles. Their polling showed trends toward same-sex marriage over the last few years, but I focused on two specific polls. I took a polling memo from July 2011 and another from June 2012 (after Obama’s same-sex marriage announcement. The trend-lines are as follows
- In 2011 support for gay marriage was 37% with 53% against. African-Americans rejected gay marriage 33% to 56% and white rejected it 37% to 53%. Hispanics also rejected same-sex marriage 31% to 55%.
- By 2012 support for gay marriage was 42% in favor with 45% against (with many moving to undecided). African-Americans supported gay marriage 49% to 31%, Hispanics supported 43% to 31%. and whites narrowly opposed 43% to 49%.
This shows a dramatic swing with African-Americans, who came to support gay marriage 16 points more than before. White support increased by 6 points and Hispanics by 12.
Now, these results are for a statewide poll, not Leon County. However, we can use those polling figures to get an estimation of how Leon County voters have evolved on same-sex marriage. Specifically looking at race, we see a strong increase in support for same-sex marriage among African-Americans and a modest one among whites; the two dominant racial groupings in the county. Using this data, I decided to do a little experiment.
First, I look the 2008 vote for the same-sex marriage ban and reversed it. If a precinct voted 60% in favor of the ban, I am going to make an estimated guess that 40% favored same-sex marriage. Now this is an imperfect process because some people voting to reject the ban may have done so on purely legal grounds (a desire for it to not be in the constitution), however, this is the base of support I must use. Then, I took the racial makeup (as a percent) of each precinct and factored in the growth in same-sex marriage support for the respective groups. For example, a precinct 50% African-American would see the 50% multiplied by 16% (the growth in support) — leading to 8%. This is an additional 8% support that exists for same-sex marriage in that precinct. By doing this for all the racial groups, we then add the total new percentage supports to the estimated 2008 support for same-sex marriage. With that we get a whole new set of figures.
The map below shows what the estimated support for same-sex marriage looks like today in Leon County. With the polling taken in 2012 it can be reasonably assumed that figures from a vote that might happen today would be even higher, but for this we will assume the polling has not moved much.
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As the map shows, support increased greatly in the center of the county, the Tallahassee area. Opposition also weakened overall. Now, this map is hardly perfect and does not reflect local trends or issues. Other factors such as gender, age, income, and education can affect support for this issue: none of which are factored in here. This aims to simply give a potential snapshot.
Overall, the swing is largest in the African-American southside. The map below shows the estimated swing between 2008 same-sex marriage support and the most recent estimated.
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The gains in the southside reflect the growth in support since Barack Obama’s endorsement of same-sex marriage. Gains were modest in the whiter precincts thanks to the slower growth in support among white voters.
Again, none of these figures are perfect. Among racial groups there are other characteristics that can dictate support. With white voters its easy to assume growth among the rural precincts is much slower than in the middle-class suburbs where the growth in support might be much faster than reflected in this experiment.
Nevertheless, lets take a deeper look at these figures broken down by county commission district. The Leon County commission (made up of 2 at-large members and 5 representatives from the 5 districts) will be voting March 12 on a domestic partnership registry. It will be good to look at how same-sex marriage (which polls weaker than domestic partnerships) fairs in the districts.
In 2008, no district favored same-sex marriage. The support for gay rights was in the center of the county and split among the districts. However, under this new estimated vote, same-sex marriage wins majority support in 4 of the 5 districts.
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The swing is biggest in the first district, which is majority African-American. Every district saw significant gains . Lets take a look at each district based on its new potential support.
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The first, which largely supported the ban before, now favors same-sex marriage with 53%. Support exists in Frenchtown, FAMU, and the upper and eastern southside. Opposition exists in African-American precincts with an older population (this is where things like age can play a role) and rural white preicncts in the south.
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The second district falls in at 54% support thanks to African-American growths in support and a further strengthening of support in the FSU and TCC precincts. Students play a huge role in this district and their support far outweighs the lack of support from the rural low-populated precincts.
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The third also falls in at 53% support. Its support comes from the middle-class Democratic suburbs (Waverlly Hills, Betton Woods/Hills) and more Republican-leaning areas like Woodgate and the Live Oak areas in its southern end as well as growing support from African-Americans in key precincts. Support falls off in more conservative white suburbs in the west and rural areas in the north.
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District 4 is the Republican district of Leon County — the only one to vote for Mitt Romney in 2012. The district is largely white but still sees steady growth in support. Many of its precincts never heavily supported the ban in 2008. Support comes from southern Killearn and the Royal Oaks area. However, opposition in Summerbrook, Ox Bottom, Killearn Lakes, and heavily-populated Killearn Estates makes district 4 the one district that is estimated to not support same-sex marriage yet. However, considering domestic partnerships poll better than same-sex marriage it is reasonable to believe the district does support that form of recognition.
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The fifth district came closest to opposing the ban in 2008 and sure enough boasts the highest support in the new estimated vote. This liberal tilt is thanks to Indian-head acres, Meyers Park, Lafayette Park neighborhoods, and a slew of Democratic white suburbs. Under the estimated vote support has increased to Piney Z, the Buck Lake area, and Republican-leaning super-suburb Southwood. Opposition largely is relegated to more rural precincts on the periphery.
Conclusions
Same-sex marriage support continues to grow all across the county. Votes and referendums that took place a few years prior no longer hold significant weight. We need look no further than Maine, which rejected same-sex marriage in 2009 then supported it in 2012. This experiment aimed to give a look at how a new vote might go down in Leon County today. The results give a valuable piece of insight into how our county has grown and continues to grow.